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Old 12-02-2007, 01:36 AM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 299
Default Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH

hmm well i didnt explain the numbers because most people in this forum are experienced with poker stove (and you should be too: go download it and fool around, it will REALLY help your game: you cant pokerstove in the middle of a match easily, but it gets you thinking in terms of equity vs ranges)

okay i will explain

1) you have 30% equity vs villains range on RIVER
2) and so on river you have 100% equity vs sets and 2 pairs, because you have them beat and there are no cards to come
3) BUT you have 0% equity vs straights and flushes for the same reasons
4) for every 3 possible set or 2 pair combos, there are 7 straight or flush combos (mostly flush combos): there are alot more combinations of cards that makes flushes than there are that make 2 pairs on this board.
5) therefore, 70% of his his possible holdings beat you, 30% lose to you
6) therefore, you would call this bet expecting to win 30% of the time

i am not sure how clear that made things. basically i calculated heros river equity vs the whole of villains given range. if you dont get that, i dont really know how to explain any more clearly.

Personally I dont like to make things more complicated than they are.

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i am not. i am making them exactly as complicated as they are, which happens to be quite complicated. yes, you could take the "zomg 3 aces" approach, and you would not go far wrong with it. but this forum is not about how not to go far wrong, it is about how to play the absolute best you possibley could and become a better player. therefore you sometimes have to think about advanced concepts and crunch alot of numbers.

Longterm I think you lose more making these great laydowns with hands as strong as top set than you save the times you right

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the whole point of an equity calculation (like the one i made) is to figure out whether a laydown is worth making in the longterm. the numbers i got suggest it is. also hand strength is relative. on a 3flush 3 straight board a set is a strong hand, but not that strong a hand.
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