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Old 10-19-2007, 07:51 PM
palman palman is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 497
Default Re: Stars 60: 2nd hand, go broke here?

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The line the guy took really screams of a monster, he gassed the flop, donk bet the turn, and min raised the river.

There's no reason to throw your last 250 some chips in, the difference between 2750 chips and 3k is nothing, whereas 250 to 0 is fairly significant.

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He didn't donkbet the turn. He was the last aggressor on the previous round of betting, so this is a standard continuation-type bet.

And flat-calling all but 250 of your chips on any street is dumb in all but the weirdest bubble situations. At this point, we shouldn't be worried about 'saving our tournament' with 250 chips if we lose, but rather maximizing our value with what is likely the best hand.

Also, the math in your example is bad. If your last 250 chips go in and he calls, the difference in your chip total when you win is not 250 as in your 2750-3000 example, it's 500. Your 250 plus his 250.

An extra 500 chips does matter, and that ev edge matters more than the prospective ev of having 250 chips left if you lose. I would think this stuff is pretty obvious.

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I think everything in this post is wrong.

He bet 120 into 590. In what world is this not considered a donk bet?

If you shove and win, you only have 250 more chips than if you called and win, not 500. You have your 250 chips no matter what you do. Once he min raises the river, we're not confident we have the best hand, that's why we are calling.

chips have more value the less you have, this is basic tournament poker strategy.

Edited to say: If we're calling a shove here, Why not just shove the river ourselves. Are we really worried about getting an A to fold here? btw, I'm in the check-call river camp unless he's got a real low ROI, in which case I'm shoving.
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