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Bobbo,
I see you advocate more semi-bluff pushes than any other poster. Your variance must be super high. What's your largest downswing?
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Interestingly, my variance is not super high. There are a bunch of reasons for this,
but this thread 2 weeks ago explained why. maybe.
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Thanks, good read. What do you think of this?
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Standard? SB is your typical 30/10 recreational player.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter
<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
<font color="black">SB: $204</font>
BB: $200.75
UTG: $334.60
<font color="black">MP: $249.75</font>
CO: $221.45
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $197</font>
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3, 6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $7</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $7, SB calls $6, BB folds
<font color="black">Flop:</font> 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($23, 3 Players)
SB checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $47</font>, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $190</font>
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Hmm. very interesting hand, for a ton of reasons. I hope if you posted this, it generated good discussion, because it deals with: Calling pf w/ SC in pos (1) dealing with a decent draw in a 3way raised pot (2) facing a c/r from a non pfr when they check, which is worrisome (3)
Here's my take:
Preflop I sometimes call here, sometimes fold, and sometimes 3bet. Kinda a cop out, but all 3 can be defended, and depending on villain, can all be right.
On the flop, this is what you should be thinking of: I have an aggressive draw (2 overs, nut OESD, bdflush, but also on a 2tone board) in a raised pot (12 bb in there). effective stack is your stack, 190, or 8x the pot.
First question: If preflop raiser cbets, what is your standard play? interestingly, the play is to call. If you raise you must call a push, and your draw isnt big enough so that you care if you put the last bet in or not. you need to be able to put the last bet in to work it effectively (winning a mid sized pot w/o showdown)
However, pfr does not bet, so the next question is, should I bet here? A freecard doesnt hurt, and it looks like if the PFR had anything (overpair, draw, even ace high may cbet!) he would've bet. So, I'd discount him. The sb's range is 30/10, which is pretty wide here, and does NOT mean his range is weighted towards small pairs/etc. So, alot of his hands (Ax, broadways) also missed.
So i'd bet 3/4 pot with a fairly wide range of hands here, (~20, I do like your bet here) and obv fold alot of the stuff to a sb c/r.
However, this time, you have a solid hand that has a ton of equity vs most hands. So the next question is should you push (he'd be calling ~145 to win 410, or he'd need 35% equity) and you'd be laying 173 to pick up 87, and when called roughly (this is the fun part, how much equity do you think you have when called? Never more then 40%, although in bizzaro world you could technically have the best hand vs 67spades or something... but id lean to ~30% in general. real good time for a pokerstove sim)
anyway, if always called, this is not a great move. So, would a sb who prolly planend to c/r the pfr (and trap you in the middle, if he was thinking) ever fold to this push? Unfortunately if he c/r a draw (spades that could have yuo high carded) and the such is now priced in, so you cant make draws fold. I think that fold equity is very diminished; but, getting the immediate price of 30:117, with position and stacks left drawing to the nuts, calling becomes very nice.
So, I wont leave you with an exact answer, but rather a few questions:
1. How often do you think he folds to the c/r? (continued) How often does he need to fold to make this +EV?
2. What hand range are you putting him on, given he called pf oop, is somewhat loose passive, then went for a checkraise in a 3way raised pot?
3. If you do call, what should your plans be on different cards?
I will say, in a nutshell, this hand looks solid, but may not be optimal. (Meaning, calling may be better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )
Also, if we did NOT have position, the decision would be more like push or fold, rather then push or call. Why do you think this is?
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Hey Bobbo. Great thread! So far ive spent the afternoon reading up to this point. I am a limit player learning NL, and wanted to ask a couple questions about this hand:
1) You say that hero cannot push flop b/c villain would be priced in w/ a draw, having to call 153 to win 410, and needing 35% equity. In doing this calc, why do you include the 153 in the 410? Shouldnt it be 153 to win 257 (the money currently in the pot)? In this case, he would be getting less than 2:1 and not be priced in.
2) Same confusion about 30:117 (the price of just calling on the flop). Preflop there was $23. Hero, bet 17, and got check raised to 47. So he has to call $30 to win a pot which is currently $87. Doesnt this mean hero is getting 30:87, or about 3:1 pot odds, instead of 4:1, and that hero would thus need 25% equity instead of 20%?
Just want to make sure Im doing these correctly. In limit, if it costs me $10, and there is $100 in the pot, I always thought I am getting 10:1 and not 11:1. (I dont include the $10 i have to pay in the pot size). Hopefully i havent been doing this incorrectly for the last couple years!
Again, cool thread. Do you currently have any availability for new students?