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Old 11-02-2007, 05:16 PM
BarryLyndon BarryLyndon is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,590
Default Re: PS $50 KQ flops TP in limped pot, non-drawy flop; action on the tu

oh dear.

I too would lead the turn. I just would hate myself for not doing so because if QJ/Q10 calls on the flop, my experience tells me they call again on the turn. Or minraise it if they are tricky position players. You can notch QJ and Q10 as tricky hands that would try to make a steal now. It's very possible. Finally, if you check, what do you plan on doing, check/raising???? I hate it. I think you have to maintain an attack here.

One problem with leading here, incidentlaly, which is why it's closer than it may seem, is that what are you representing at this point but a straight or a two pair? And why is he check raising then? But, you have to live with it. The lsat thing you want is for him to ask "why is HE checkraising."

Pushing here is silly on the turn. There is only one hand here that you are ahead of that has a "ton" of outs - KcJc or maybe Ac9c. That by far outweighs the two hands that you could be in much better shape against - QJ and Q10. I am trying to be more and more apt to thinking that that ONE flush draw hand I'm worried about is just ONE hand out of another 15+ combos. I don't do well by it, but I'm trying. Maybe it's time to go back to NL50 for a few weeks and codify this thinking process.

OK - the river. I lean toward a block bet here, the more and more I think about it. The way it's played, the last thing you want is to check here and give the button an impulse to bet. The button has showed throughout the hand that he's either setting you up for a trick or a treat (Happy Belated Halloween, 2+2). I don't know if he's FPSig or luring you in, but I don't want to see wtf that river bet is here. If you block bet, you effectively force him to figure out wtf is going on. If he RRs you, I think you can safely fold. 350 would do.

Barry
PS: Against this particular opponent, your 350 bet will appear real to him. Of course, against a good opponent, he wouldn't have taken this line whether he was bluffing or playing the winning hand to begin with.
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