[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet $50.

[/ QUOTE ]
We shouldn't give him like 4:1 direct, 9:1 implied on this board. At least 80 imo.

I realise you're trying to induce but I don't like it on this board and I don't think it will work often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

* Best hand of the week.

Well I'm trying to maximize value against Villain's entire range (which includes inducing bluffs), but I didn't actually play with any numbers, I was just thinking off the top of my head.


POT SIZE = $131
EFFECTIVE STACKS = $183

VILLAIN'S RANGE: This is obviously the hardest part and I actually hardly play, so you're guess of Villain's range is much better than mine. I wish I knew if Villain ever 4-bets preflop...but whatever.

AA= 6 ways
KK= 4 ways (cause he 4-bets it some preflop?)
QQ= 3 ways
JJ= 1 ways
TT= 3 ways
99= 2 ways (cause he folds preflop and checks flop?)

AcKc= 1 way
AK (no club) = 10(cause he 4-bets it some preflop?)

Now the question of how each acts to a bet?

VILLAINS ACTION
AA=
Bet of $50: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0% (ever bluff?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0%

KK
Bet of $50: Folds 95%, Bluffs 5% (bluff too high?)
Bet of $50: Folds 100%, Bluffs 0%

QQ
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 50% Calls 50% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 0%, Raises 0%, Calls 100% (?)

JJ
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 90%, Calls 10%
Bet of $90: Folds 0%, Raises 100%

TT
Bet of $50: Folds 00%, Raises 25%, Calls 75% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 10%, Raises 25%, Calls 65% (?)

99
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 25%, Calls 75% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 20%, Raises 20%, Calls 60% (?)

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Bet of $50: Folds 0%, Raises 10%, Calls 90% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100% (?)

AxKx
Bet of $50: Folds 95%, Raises 5% (?)
Bet of $80: Folds 100%

Feel free to change any of my numbers, with what you want in bold and I'll do an EV calc.