[mythrilfox]

"im not betting the turn unless i want to call a shove."

WHY?

"but i check this turn pretty often, so villain can call a river bet with 44-TT, and of course weak Ax. just call if he bets into you on river."

Do you really think he's calling a river bet with those hands? Do you really think he's folding a weaker ace on the turn? I can see checking here some of the time to try and trap an ace or w/e, but against an unknown I say bet and get it in.

"Well, I guess the question is do you want to call a shove here against an unknown."

ty

"Nice post, CS3. If you bet the turn, you need to call a shove (especially with your size bet)."

Again, why? One such justification might be: his semi-bluffing range on the turn is wide enough such that we can't bet and then fold. Another such justification might be, he will interpret this bet as weakness and pounce on it.

I don't know what your justification is - maybe it's something else - but I don't agree with either of those hypotheses I presented.

Anyway, all [censored] aside, I hardly ever fold AK on a board like this, but this seems like a good place to do it. To call we need him to:
1. semi-bluff with Axdd. 99.9% of players just call here with such a hand, in case you're bluffing but they have outs to improve.
2. bluff with Ax. No one would turn Ax into a bluff on this board. No one.
3. value an ace highly enough that he thinks he can c/c flop c/r turn for value. Maybe AJ/AQ? But if he values those hands that highly why wouldn't he just raise them preflop? This is the most conceivable thing to me, because there are some players that consider AQ a drawing hand there, or w/e, and won't raise preflop, but go nuts once they've hit their hand.

I think all in all A2,A3,33,22,45 are more likely than that, though. So fold.