[Grisgra]

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Are we to view this as the last hand of a session?

With what range will B call a river raise and with what range will he 3 bet in your opinion? If we just fix some parameters the math isn't all that hard to work out.

-WT

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I wouldn't view it as the last hand of the session, but in pure EV-for-the-hand terms, perhaps it's best.

I think that the lagtard in question calls a river raise with any piece, 3-bets his missed whatever about 20% of the time. Allowing for that rocking river bluff-cap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Meaning that player B, in deciding whether to raise the river, I think needs to figure that A is on a bluff around 25% of the time. I don't know that that's unreasonable.

What I find interesting about HU aggro is that after the first raise or two, if someone has a showdownable hand, they're generally going to revert to calling down, and let the other person continue to bluff if they don't have it, and let them value-bet if they do. In other words, continuing to raise in that situation is generally -EV. But if they have air, well, continuing to go after the pot is +EV relative to calling (maybe not relative to folding, obviously).

Given the turn action, both players are either semibluffing like madmen or have at least top pair, if not a straight/trips/boat. And I don't know that the main aggressor in this hand, player A, 3-bets the turn here with something like top pair -- I would think he either has trips or better, or he's bluffing.

Does he really have trips+ 75%+ of the time? Sure, he could have 3-bet preflop with something like 54s, *absolutely*. But it's a coordinated board and he knows that player B likes to bluffraise.

Other thing I find interesting is that hand 20 hands ago, where B bluffraised the river, A called down with K-high, and won the pot. After that hand, one would think that A would think B is less likely to bluffraise the turn because he knows that A is calling down with ANYTHING showdownable.

So if B thinks A thinks B 'learned his lesson' about bluffraising on late streets, doesn't that make a river raise by B more reasonable?

I don't know.