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Sorry didn't read all your reasoning for gold/silver spread, but isn't a crack spread a better arbitrage strategy. (assuming if the spread still exist)

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doesn't that refer to oil vs. heating oil or other products chemically 'cracked' from the initial 'dirty' product?

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Personally, if I am taking risk premium returns, I would look into premiums provided by futures backwardations.

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i'm not really interested in risk premia. i want to express a specific macro view in the gold/silver futures market for alpha generation purposes.

historically, there have been returns from holding backwardated futures contracts till the next near by and rolling it over. i'm not as well versed in this area though so i don't want to think about that specifically as a macro based trade idea.

if youw ant though, we can discuss your expectations of capturing the 'backwardation premium' into the future and how it relates to different commodities. that'd be an interesting discussion as well, but for trade ideas, i wanna stick with macro views expressed as trades.

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Also, don't forget that yield curve is inverted between 6mo and 2 yr.

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yes, but that is i think a mistake and there are likely opportunities there as well. haven't outlined those yet here though so that is something i'll think about and get back.

thanks,
Barron