Here\'s The Situation
First let me say that the general principle in this and many of these scenarios, is the average person or coach's incorrect gut feeling about going for ties that have to be played off. They just don't gamble enough when they can go for the win. Two 70% shots are an underdog but it doesn't feel that way to a non gambler. Thus they go for two point shots, bunt, punt, etc. etc. when they shouldn't. Or sometimes go for one extra point rather than two. This isn't just my opinion. Many experts have shown that some of these errors are egregious. The apologists invoke psychology to defend the coaches. But that is usually disengenuous because the coach had no idea that psychology would have to be his excuse.
But this particular play I have never before seen done, or talked about. Not even by the mathematically inclined. For it to be right you need things to be kind of just so. And you can't fall back on clear cut statistics like you can with the two point conversion, when down by eight, scenario.
Still I believe that what I am about to propose is often the right decision with about five minutes to go in the game. Especially if your team has a good defense and only a so so field goal kicker. Because it comes up so rarely and is most likely close and less obviously provable than other errors, I wouldn't even mention it. Except that it may be an original idea. For now I will state it without going into the relevant calculations. I will leave that to others.
If you score a touchdown with five minutes or so left in the game and that puts you down by exactly four points, go for two.
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