Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
Well, while LSU's obviously eliminated now, I just wanted to keep the spirit of this thread going by giving some rough numbers for the remaining teams chances to win the championship:
West Virginia: -104
Ohio State: +315
Missouri: +327
Other: +7000
The initial asssumptions there are that WVU's 95% to beat Pitt and Oklahoma's 58% to beat Missouri. Then, for simplicity's sake, I figured Oklahoma to play for the championship when WVU and Missouri both lose since they seem far and away most likely (probably ~85-90%).
I set the championship lines at:
Ohio State vs. West Virginia -3 (spread/running QB and team built on speed getting a 3 pt. matchup edge vs. team that had trouble with those and is perceived as slow)
Missouri -1.5 vs. West Virginia
Missouri -1 vs. Ohio State
Oklahoma -6 vs. Ohio State
My ML numbers won't be super accurate, but if you see West Virginia at +130 or the no on Missouri at -280, I think you can feel pretty safe pounding it.
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