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Forgot to include Arizona in initial post. My pre-season ranking (giving it not enough research):

1.UCLA
2.Oregon
3.Wash St.
4.Arizona
5.USC
6.Wash
7.Cal
8.Stan
9.OSU
10.ASU

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I didn't do enough research either, but I don't think you can put USC above Stanford. I think Stanford is top 5, but this is probably just the sports media talking. USC also has an absolutely brutal schedule, which includes all the Pac 10 plus a game at Memphis and home against Kansas. That means they'll have six games against top 10 teams (if you go by the AP poll).

How good is Sagarin compared to the polls in the first weeks of the season? It seems he'd need a bit of a sample size before the ratings looked anything close to reliable.

Going by the AP poll, the Pac 10 is the toughest conference this year, with 5/10 being in the top 25 (Big 12 and Big East have 4 I think I just glanced over it). Its too early to know anything for sure, but I don't think the Pac is overrated. Its going to be a tough year for everybody.