[Perplexity]

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Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.

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That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s.

Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one.

I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120.

Sherman

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I was basing my calculation on his actual record in 4/180s (1 win in 208 attempts).

I agree that it's entirely possible -- even likely -- that his actual chance of winning is better than 1/208.

If his chance to win was 1/180, he would be 50% to win at least 1 if he played 125. *NOT* 90, as you suggested.