Re: I can read souls...
In an attempt to shine some light on this situation, lefts make a few assumptions.
1. Villain is holding five hands (JJ+, AK).
2. The frequency of holding each hand will be derived from the # of combos remaining in the deck on the flop.
3. If we shove on the flop, villain will fold AK and call with JJ+.
4. For the sake of simplicity we will pretend villain folds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Which is obviously retarded. However it represents a small part of the equation.
AK = 8 combos
AA = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo
QQ = 6 combos
JJ = 3 combos
Total of 24 combos.
Here is the possibility of villain holding each hand.
AK = 8/24 = 33%
AA = 6/24 = 25%
KK = 1/24 = 4%
QQ = 6/24 = 25%
JJ = 3/24 = 13%
Here is the equity we have versus each hand he calls with on the flop.
AA = 12%
KK = 25% (note we would split the pot)
QQ = 90%
JJ = 15%
Combined equity against his calling range.
AA = 12% * 25% = 3%
KK = 25% * 4% = 1%
QQ = 90% * 25% = 22.5%
JJ = 15% * 13% = 2%
Our total equity against his calling range equals 28.5%.
Now we need to figure out how much FE we need to break even on a shove.
When we shove and...
He calls and we lose = -$80
He calls and we win = +$120
He folds = +80
FE Calculation
FE
= 80f + (1-f) [ .285(120) + .715(-80)]
f = 18%
We need 18% equity to break even on a shove. Villain will be folding AK 33% of the time. Therefore it is +EV to shove the flop under these conditions.
Conclusion
If we assume villain is looser than this example then shoving this flop is printing money.
Obviously if villain is tigther than this example shoving will cost us money in the long run.
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