Re: National Championship
If South Florida wins out, they're ~90% to reach the championship. First off, the chances that there even are two other undefeateds at the end of the season are pretty slim. Ohio State's about 40-50% to win out and no one else is even close. Kansas, Arizona State, and BC probably aren't 50% combined.
Second, I'm not so sure that BC or Kansas gets in over USF. USF's tougher schedule means that they have at least 2nd in the computer rankings pretty much locked up. If USF's a full spot ahead of BC in the computer rankings, then they only need for more than 25% of the pollsters to put them ahead of BC to get in.
With Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville on the schedule, USF should get at least the same boost that BC gets for playing VT twice, Clemson, and Maryland. If there are 3 undefeateds at the end of the season, I think that USF's still > 50% to play for the title.
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