Re: Too much SPR
Good answer. Glad to hear you would consider folding.
I OFTEN FOLD HERE, NOT SO MUCH BASED ON THE SIZE OF THE STACKS BE BECAUSE I KNOW I AM BEHIND AND UNLIKELY TO GET PAID ENOUGH TO MAKE IT HAVE A POSITIVE EV.
In my experience, 99% of live players make the call with JTs or A5s if they close the action in a multiway raised pot, as long as most of the players have stacks of at least 80xBB or more.
The reason they always give? Implied odds. (Sometimes they also say good relative position, but it's amazing how often people don't consider relative position).
But in the situation I described above, there will be 185 in the pot when you call, and everyone will have 470. So, everyone's SPR will be 2.6:1.
When JTs and A5s make great hands, it's usually by the turn or river. They flop 2 pair or better made hands about 3% of the time. The flop huge combination draws far less than 3%.
YES, I THINK OF 2 PAIR OR BETTER AS 1 IN 28, BUT IT IS THE SAME THING.
Most of the time, they miss the flop. Sometimes, they flop a weak one pair hand. Sometimes, they flop 8 or 9 out draws.
Assuming there is any action on the flop and you have an 8-9 out draw, most players will call or go all in. After all, they didn't play the drawing hand to fold once the flop gives them a draw.
CAN'T GO ALL IN AS A 2 TO 1 DOG, AND IF THE OPPONENT IS WILLING TO PLAY FOR ALL HIS CHIPS HE MAY HAVE A SET AND THEN YOU ARE A LITTLE MORE OF A DOG. IN LIMIT POST FLOP YOU WILL OFTEN BE GETTING THE CORRECT PRICE AND VS ONE OPPONENT YOUR ACE MIGHT BE GOOD - BUT THAT IS AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT GAME.
The problem is that 8-9 out draws seem profitable multiway in raised pots at 100xBB stacks if you get action on the flop. This is mostly illusion.
I AGREE
If you have 33-35% equity in with an SPR of 2.6:1, your implied odds against 1 foe (who flopped a set or 2 pair or an overpair) are 3.6:2.6 when you are at best a 2:1 dog.
YOU ACTUALLY NEED 2 PEOPLE TO GO ALL IN WITH YOU ON THE FLOP TO HAVE ANY CHANCE AT AN OVERLAY WHEN YOU FLOP A 8-9 OUT DRAW.
This is an example of how you can use SPR to avoid trap situations that can cost you your stack. I never used to fold drawing hands in multiway raised pots with good relative position before I started thinking about SPR. Now, unless stacks are DEEP, I routinely fold in this situation based upon my reading of PNL.
THEN PNL HELPED YOU. I USALLY FOLD HERE AND HAVE FOR YEARS. BUT AS USUSAL ...IT DEPENDS....
Bottom line, while you are correct that there are many things to think about in NLHE, it appears to me you are selling SPR short. Its implications are vast, and sometimes lead to conclusions that seem counterintuitive.
I DIDN'T SEE THIS DECISION AS COUNTERINTUITIVE BEFORE PNL SO IT IS HARD FOR ME TO COMMENT.
I THINK THE AUTHORS COVERED POSITION WELL. I THINK THEY SPEND WAY TOO MUCH TIME ON STACK TO POT RATIO.
HAVE A GOOD DAY.
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