[TomCowley]

It's a trivially necessary stipulation that all surveyed have been exposed to roughly the same information (otherwise critical obscure knowledge, like if some extreme longshot actually happened, could be disproportionately possessed either by idiots or by geniuses, depending on who witnessed it, which could skew the survey either way). Given that, then anything resembling objective probability precludes (statistically significant) groups of highly intelligent people splitting 70-30 into opposing positions, each with 95% confidence, and believing anything with >95% confidence that can't be analyzed to that level by objective probability is completely irrational.