Re: Razz - semi-ok hand 3-way - linecheck
Okay...
1. I agree that you should bet any river brick here. You are repping a made 7 and if you make a 3rd pair or hit a face card on 7th you obviously have to try and win the pot by betting...
2. I also understand your next point - if this is true then your opponent will expect you to be betting awful hands a lot of the time and call you down very light, making this a good spot to value bet.
There are a few problems with this line of thinking Rogg. First of all, if your opponent is as bad as you say he is, you can't give him credit for this kind of multiple level analysis. Second, your actual hand on 6th is way worse than the hand you are representing. Given the action on previous streets, when you bet on 7th, I think he is very likely to think "he is betting his made 7 or 6 for value".
I am not saying that I never bet my hand vs. his board - I just don't in this situation. The only way I bet is if I feel the strength of my hand is discredited in some way. For example, if I had entered this hand in steal position then I would probably bet this river and expect him to call me down lighter. Also, if I showed weakness/played this hand awkwardly and given my opponent a good reason to think I was full of it then I would also probably bet.
In this situation, however, I believe you have played your hand exactly the same way you would've played a made 7. Your opponent isn't calling you down to 7th because he thinks you are floating - he is calling you down to 7th because he has a very big draw. On 7th, one of two things is going to happen:
1. He is going to hit a better hand than you
2. He is going to hit a worse hand than you
In the case of #1, he is at least calling EVERY time, and raising a lot of the time. In case #2, he is making a J, Q, or K and has to be the biggest retard in the world to call you down given how this hand has played out. Therefore, betting is pointless - worse hands fold, better hands play...
Like I said before, the only way I bet in this specific situation is if my opponent is good, and I want to keep him on his toes. Now if you check and he bets, you have a tough decision on your hands. I would base my decision a lot on the speed of his bet... an instabet in this spot is virtually never a bluff...
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