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Old 10-10-2007, 04:28 PM
HoyaSaxa123 HoyaSaxa123 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 74
Default Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****

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Swapping A-Rod for Betemit in 2007 would be enough to drop the Yankees to the range of Boston/Detroit.

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OK. This is not taking into factor any of the players on the Red Sox or Tigers (or other teams), and their regression/progression.

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And if in addition Posada had hit like a typical catcher (well below 100 OPS+) the Yankees offense would have probably been barely above average.

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But he didn't. You can do this for any player, but it doesn't make much sense. Sure, Posada had a career year that he surely will never have again, but he still did have that year. If Giambi was healthy and played 140 games with a .900+ OPS like he did the previous two years, their offense would have been even better. If Magglio Ordonez hit like a normal RF, I'm pretty sure the Tigers' lineup would have been slightly diminished. It works both ways for every team.

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Posada is almost certain to decline substantially

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I'm presuming you are basing this on the normal catcher's regression with age. Posada cannot be characterized with the normal catcher due to the fact that he was a middle infielder his entire life until the age of 23-24. Torre has also done a good job throughout the years giving Posada considerable rest. As I said before, most likely he won't put up near the stats he did this year, but take into account that the wear and tear on his body is substantially less than the typical catcher.

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Other aging risks include Abreu, Matsui, Damon, & Jeter, so the offense has the potential to fall off a cliff

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OK. Since you used Boston I will as well. Red Sox aging risks include Manny, Ortiz, Lowell (if he returns), Varitek (even more), and JD Drew.

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Matsui. He's always been above average, was still above average in 07, but he's getting old and you can't expect more than average.

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The Tigers were your other example used. Magglio Ordonez, as I stated before, had an unreal year just like Posada. Sheffield is ancient. Polanco and Guillen are both getting old as well.

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Giambi. In 07 he was below average hitter for 1B and a lousy defender. He might actually have been an average full time DH given the dregs that usually get trotted out there in the AL. He could easily rebound to be above average again or fall off a cliff.

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I said this previously, but I'll say it again.

2005 - 139 G .440 OBP .535 SLG
2006 - 139 G .413 OBP .558 SLG

As you said, he could rebound to above average again, or he could not. He is also getting pretty old (37 next year), but to automatically characterize him as a below average hitter IF healthy is not right.

Thank you for taking the time to provide the stats for all these guys, but I think in order to have a great idea of how their lineup will stack up against others, this type of data should be compiled for the other teams as well. Unfortunately, I do not have the subscriptions to do this.
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