Thread: Variance & Tilt
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Old 08-09-2007, 03:35 PM
gobbledygeek gobbledygeek is offline
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Default Re: Variance & Tilt

[ QUOTE ]

I don't remember all of the details, but there are a bunch of hands that go something like this.

I limp from EP with A7s 3 more limp (including BB).
Flop [4sb]: T72 rainbow (none of my suit)
I check
Someone from LP bets
I fold
(Maybe I'm rock'n here, but 95% of the hands I folded would have lost a showdown and 95% of them got to a showdown.)

The alternate version of this is where it gets check around and the turn brings a K or a Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop I'd limp A7s all the time at my 2/4 B&M loose table.

On flop you have 5 solid outs (3 Aces, 2 Sevens) so you need about 8:1 to continue. If BB calls then you'd be getting 6:1 which I think would be enough to continue (should be able to make up 1 BB, fairly confident remaining player won't checkraise?). If BB doesn't call then only getting 5:1 with still one more to act behind you, meh, I think this is probably borderline; even though the pot is small, I'd probably still call hoping to get one more caller behind me and hope I can make up the bets (although an A or 7 is a scary card and you might have trouble getting bets, pulling a checkraise, etc.).

If flop checks around and turn brings K/Q, hmmm. Pot is only laying 2 BB at that point. You'd have 2 solid Sevens, 4 solid gutshuts (although do we have to discount for chopped pot?) and 3 fairly solid Aces; I think I'd count about 7 outs (?) so you'd need about 6:1 to continue. Doubt you'd have enough to continue at this point so if someone bets I'm done fighting for this tiny pot.

GmytwocentsG
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