Re: Big hand, HU, 220bbs deep
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I was 90% sure he had AAxx and AAxx only and would still stack off if i hit a diamond.
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ok one final point as i think this is an interesting hand - whats would your line have been on the river if he had checked?? i think if you were planning to bluff any broadway card then i think a call is a reasonable play, if your only line is to bet a diamond on the river then i think you have to fold the turn given your read - for me the times he has a higher flush with his AAxx (i think its around 15-20% maybe someone knows the correct odds here??) mean that the call is very marginal at best
rather than do the seperate maths for with/without diamonds if you just stove a random AAxx against your hand it dosent look good
Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3dTdAh4c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Th2d9dTc 15.43% 92,600 0
AA** 84.57% 507,400 0
you need to win at least $130 on the river to make this play =ev, but you only have around $127 left
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