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Old 08-29-2007, 07:54 AM
4CardStraight 4CardStraight is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Twin Cities, MN
Posts: 560
Default Re: $50fo FTP $7.5k, AK on the button

Im guessing neither of these guys makes this play with AQo, or anything. TAGs, betting their whole stack to win 10%, and two of em... I can muck AKo here. I sure as heck wouldnt show them it. I certainly wouldnt do it against someone that could 3bet me wide, or someone that makes plays.

Heres the problem. It only takes one of them having a top 4% hand and we dont have enough equity to make a pot odds call three ways.

Hand 0: 28.091% 20.11% 07.98% 1331832 528752.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 28.675% 26.28% 02.40% 1740679 158649.83 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 43.234% 36.45% 06.79% 2413933 449699.83 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

So if either player has a top 4% hand, we really dont want to take this here. If they are both really quite TAG, and neither really makes plays, I think you can find a muck with AKo.

As an interesting aside, look how much being suited adds to your position here

Hand 0: 31.822% 24.34% 07.48% 532977 163839.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 27.217% 25.02% 02.21% 547715 48282.83 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 40.960% 34.61% 06.36% 757703 139267.67 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

If were against a 10% and 4% hand, being suited brings us up to a reasonable pot odds call here. If they are narrower than that, like top 5% and top 3%, we can fold AKs too, but I sure wouldnt like it. The fact that I am on the button here would make me call with AKs pretty fast I think, theres got to be at least SOME chance they are moving on my button raise.
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