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I didn't want to start a new thread about this since its so player dependent...
Villain is Narena. For those who have played with him a lot what do you think his range is here? What would you call river with?
Lately I am playing around 22/17 w/ 50% atsb. This session I've been a little less wiley at around 18/15, 40% atsb.
Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter
SB: $241.75
BB: $196.65
UTG: $206.70
UTG+1: $222.60
MP1: $200
MP2: $306.60
CO: $81.75
Hero (BTN): $220.25
MP1 posts $2
Pre-Flop: xx dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, MP1 checks, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9</font>, SB folds, BB calls $7, MP1 folds
Flop: ($21) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $14</font>, Hero calls $14
Turn: ($49) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $30</font>, Hero calls $30
River: ($109) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $110</font>, Hero folds.
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I think he has a set or strong combo draw. I'd lean a little more towards the later as I'm guessing you are pretty aggro meaning he'd nearly always get a check/raise in with two-pair+ which gets value from the bulk of your range that will have missed this board. If your c-bet percentage isn't high then its more likely to be a value/protection bet with a set.
If it's a combo draw then Narena's play is bet-3-bet IMHO. In otherwords if you raised he'd put you to a decision for your stack and thus generate maximum fold equity with an unmade hand. Some people c/r the combo draw here which is stupid IMHO as you allow your villain to put you to the final decision and furthermore if you are just called you have a horrible turn decision if you don't improve. Narena knows all this so would likely play that way with said hands.
Mike, if I'm correct you can email and stroke me ego [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]