[JTrout]

What is it you don't like about V-L?
If it's their timing ranking, I don't use it either.
I just like having so much info on one page, and that it is available to me.
I do think that they are too optimistic as a whole.

If it's how they get their safety ratings, or financial strength ratings, please let me know.
My whole strategy starts with these two numbers.

As to mutual funds, if I were to go that route, I'd put it into Vanguard Index Funds and be done with it.

As I see it, for me at least:

Vanguard Index Funds-
Advantages:
Simple, easy strategy that would mirror the market and outperform the majority of investors.
Provides an easy way to regularly contribute. (This I feel is important to me, because I'd be more likely to get in the habit of contributing monthly to this option than I would to contribute monthly to a stock portfolio.)
Most informed people would advise me to take this strategy over stock picking.

Disadvantages:
I don't have high expectations for the market return over the next 10 years.
I don't see the market P/E expanding; more likely shrinking a little.
I hate the idea of having any investment dollars in some of the stocks that make up the index- companies with high multiples and no earnings.
It's not as much fun, nor as challenging.


Stock picking strategy-
Advantages:
Investment dollars will be in blue chip companies with a long history of success.
Very good chance to do considerably better than market average.
Puts to use the (limited) knowledge that I've acquired.
Promotes continued learning.
I'm confident in my decisions.

Disadvantages:
Goes against advise of many people MUCH smarter than myself.
Potential to do worse than market average.
I may be too confident in my strategy, without a full understanding of how to value stocks.
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I think the back-testing idea is outstanding, but I'm unlikely to do it because I don't know exactly how, and probably don't have the tools at my disposal to do it.

I would bet that the returns are outstanding.
(See, I said I was too confident! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Pulling numbers completely out of my arse (I mean brain):
I think the Vanguard Index Strategy would provide an annual return between 4 and 10% over the next 20 years.
I think the blue chip value strategy would return 8-15% annually.

Am I nuts? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]