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Old 06-15-2007, 10:51 PM
Evan Evan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: startupping
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Default Re: Possible Facebook IPO: History reapeating itself?

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It reminds me of stories about old timers in the 1950's who kept shorting any slight market downturn b.c. the depression permanently imprinted itself in their heads, and thereby could never make any money even while the times were booming.



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Exactly what I think. I've never seen so many doomsayers and permabears before, from just hearing some of the talk, you would think we were in a depression.

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When people are saying "Wow these valuations are getting really high and there's a ton of money being thrown around" you'd think we're in a depression? That actually sounds like the exact opposite of a depression to me.

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what I'm saying is that people are quite negative and skeptical of the general economy. Rarely do you hear anything positive even though things like internet marketing and the job market for college grads are booming. Everyone talks about housing and the middle class getting destroyed. I also hear a lot of talk from some friends in financial services about how their clients want to short every time the market goes down. That sort of thing never happened in the 90s. If you want a real laugh, you should go to elitetrader, a third of the threads there are people calling market tops everyday!

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Internet marketing is not something I'd really care about when we're talking about important economic factors. Internet advertising is going to be a long tailed business, a lot of the people that were making a ton on it a year ago are making nothing now. Just because anyone can make a blogspot blog and an adsense account doens't mean anything is booming. The middle class getting destroyed gets more attention than internet marketing for very good reason.
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