[DawnToDusk]

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DawnToDusk, I appreciate all the time you spent calculating all of this and putting it into a form thats easy to understand.

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I'm glad you posted this hand and I was able to contribute to its discussion. It has helped me learn a lot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I realize that you do say quite a few times that of course the profitability of the play depends a whole lot on the proclivities of the opponent. What I think you might have missed on this occasion was the table dynamics. I was completely running over the table, playing 30/24 and c-betting every time I raised pf and had position on the flop. My opponents were check minraising my c-bets in upwards of 50 percent of the time.

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I guess I can also make the assumption that they were folding a lot to someone coming over the top of their minraises. If that is the case then your EV for when they have a hand that you are tied with will go up.

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Personally, I don't think about numbers or math much when playing, I concentrate on images and betting patterns. I was actually ready to give this hand up once villain bet the turn, but after consideration, his weak bet on the turn gave me the idea to give the play a try, and I kinda thought that he folds in this situation much much more often than he ever has a hand that beats me.

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I usually don't think a lot about math either. Most times I look at my odds, pot odds, and then try to assign a frequency to my opponents actions depending on a specific hand range. Pretty rough estimates.

I took the time to do this kind of post game analysis of your hand though because I think you can alter the specifics of the hand and it would apply to a lot of different situations. You know what if you hadn't been running over the table and your image was just a TAG and a LAG? If your image was a LAG this move might be less EV for you than if you were a TAG. What if your opponents didn't view you like that? You were just a player to them and they were really straightforward for their image? Well if that is the case, then if they are LAGgy and tend more to call down to the river then this move is pretty -EV. On the other hand if you have an opponent who will fold to big bets then this move is +EV.

Your hand in the OP gave a good basis for similar situations like this. I hope there are plenty more hands in the near future where we can first analyze it and then extrapolate it to other situations, we will better prepare ourselves for whatever game we sit. It will allow us to make the most correct decision given any situation.