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Old 10-31-2006, 11:13 PM
AlienBoy AlienBoy is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Poker Happens...
Posts: 2,264
Default Re: Need to know drop for 1/2 blind NL games in LA for eTable analysis

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while AlienBoy is on his way to destroying the game as it is now good.

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LOLZ - that guy in seat 5 was just HANDING me racks!

After you left a GAMBLOR sat in 7, and seat 5 and 7 both went AI for a rack PF after I had raised to $35 on the button with pocket 77. I read them both for AK or KQ or something and called $70 getting decent odds on a now $250 pot - all low cards came on the board & MHIG... lol. Unfortunately I had to get up in the morning and had to leave... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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No, I was there for that pot. I was fading out and missed some of the early action but was thinking a bit about the hand and just ran some numbers on Pokerstove. If you aren't partly pot stuck and don't put them on somewhat duplicated overcards you really aren't in great shape with them all in. Here are three hands that could be in the range:

With something like AcKd, KhQs, versus 7c7h you have 43.5.% equity. Easy call if you are reasonably sure.

But if against the dreaded overcards, overpair combo it's much worse. For example if they hold AcKd, 9h9s versus 7c7h you have under 18% equity.

If they hold unduplicated overcards, your equity is only about 32%. You need the dead money here.

A lot depends on the certainty of your reads and how often some of the worse case scenarios fall in the range. Your reads are probably better than mine though. Sometimes I have NL ADD.

~ Rick

PS Sh_t, I forgot this is the B&M forum, not a strategy forum. TT may delete this but I'll leave it up given I already wrote it.

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My call was entirely read dependent, not to say it wasn't flawed ... I may make too many of these close reads.

I was about 90% certain that seat 5 pushed over my $35 raise with AK or AQ, due largely to the manner he did it.

I was about 80% sure that Seat 7 had either a low pocket pair, or AK/AQ/KQ based on his reaction. He took for ever then did the "gambler knee jerk" where he decides to just "take a shot". This was all just enough information to put them on a narrow range, and getting about 3.5 to 1 from the pot at that point, I called.

On the other hand, I may play too loose at times... lol

AB
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