Re: \"crazy\" hypo
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Let's say board is 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
You have 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the small blind. You pot, all fold except one guy who repots. Stacks are deep.
Against some people I could fold this.
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well if there's any time to fold it it will be in this kind of situation (OOP, lots of money left behind, very big draw possible, you can comfortably put the guy on a big draw, you have your own outs). That much should be obvious.
But can you explain exactly against who you could fold this, and why?
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again, i don't think i'd ever fold in reality. but i did some analysis of situations as described in which my hand is basically face up and my opponent's hand is a big draw (but which one exactly is unknown to me), and i found that it can be a surprisingly marginal spot.
the main implication i was thinking of are: 1) that sets are overrated when the money is very deep, esp oop -- because when you get a lot of action your opponents are probably going to play against your hand very well on later streets while you're going to be in the dark. they can be a little bit like aces preflop in this way. 2) it supports my long-held belief that, contrary to hold-em, where made hands can be played fine out of position, but draws generally need to be played in position, in omaha the opposite is true. 3) it reminds me that there are a number of situations where you're practically certain to have the "best" hand and you almost know that your opponent is bluffing or semi-bluffing, but where you should still be able to fold without regret. at the very least there are a lot of spots where the likely best hand should be played fairly passively, since your opponent is going to have the advantage on future streets. there's some other stuff rolling around in my head, but i'll keep this short.
none of this is really breakthrough or anything, i guess it was just that when i looked at some of these spots in depth (basically doing backwards induction analysis assuming opponent played optimally), i was a little surprised to see that some of these obvious truths may be even more true than i, or some others, would have suspected.
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