Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
Did this quick. I think the math is accurate. Feel free to critique:
Times he folds: +X(5.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you hit: +(100-X)(12/45)(7.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you don’t hit: -(100-X)(33/45)(2BB)
X=% of time he folds to your turn raise
5.75X+(100-X)2.07-(100-X)1.47
5.75X+207-2.07X-147+1.47X
5.15X+60
X=11.65%
If he folds 12% of the time, this play is good. The math ignores the times you get 3-bet by AA and the times he calls and you spike a K and beat his QQ/JJ for whatever reason, but those situation happen a small % of the time.
I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE.
|