[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2) call because I have the odds (with implieds on the turn) to peel, fold to turn bet if I don't catch my jack

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed Option 2. Selecting this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only count 9.5sb preflop and 5 sb on the flop, therefore 14.5:1 (less rake). Assuming one raise we're getting 20.5:1 (less rake). Of course, this is less because on the river he could hit his set.

However, if you can cap the turn and bet the river: 24.5:1 (less rake and less when he hits).

Sometimes you'll be able to cap the turn and sometimse you won't. We'll assume that he never hits the river, because it makes my head hurt.

2 outs on the flop = 22.5:1.

x + y = 1
20.5x + 24.5y = 22.5

x = 1-y

20.5(1-y) + 24.5y = 22.5

20.5 - 20.5y + 24.5y = 22.5
2.5 = 4y

y = 2.5 / 4

y = 62.5%

Therefore, assuming that the game has no rake, and that he never will hit his A/K, and that we have no rakeback, an unknown player must three-bet the turn 62.5% of the time (and call down vs a cap).

To be honest I think that we'll get the action taht we want fairly often, and sometimes we'll even get to raise the river, but I don't think it'll be happening 62.5% of the time vs. unknowns.

So, I guess you should just fold?

--Dave.

Edit: LOL! make that 50% of the time... It's a lot closer at 50% than it would be a 62.5%. However, at 50% we're break-even (less rake, nightmare rivers, etc. etc.) so I'd go ahead and fold it.