Re: AFC Champion prop
I think SD is worth +127 to win the AFC. +127 is 44%. That means they'd have to be about 66.4% in each of their two games to get to 44% to win the AFC. 66.4% is roughly a 4 point favorite.
So, will they be (on average) 4 point favorites in their two home games in the playoffs? I think that's about right. They could be higher faves (if KC or NYJ sneak a win in the first round), or they could be lower faves (if IND, NE or BAL look extremely strong and SD does not), but I'm comfortable using 4 as my expected average line in their two games.
But with that said, it's still an estimation that I'd have to have a certain confidence interval around. If I think fair value is +127, I need some room to make a bet, like +147 or better. The line of +134 is not bettable for me.
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