[Mr. Reindeer]

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In a truly passive situation that hand is good more like 25% or 50% of the time rather than 3% or 7% IMO.


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That seems really high to me. Even if my read was better and I knew she could do something screwy, I wouldn't think I was good 25% of the time after she check raises.

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I would not fold that specific situation for one river bet without a clearer read. But I think you think you should have not folded because you "would have won" which is not the way to think about it.


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I'm trying to be as objective as I can and look at it based on what I knew at the table. I might not be succeeding, but I'm trying. Obviously I probably don't post it if I don't see her hand. My concern wasn't really if I was beat or not, I think most of us agree that I'm in bad shape after she raises. My thoughts were about whether or not the pot was big enough to be able to make a crying call. If my read was solid, I still think it's a fold. Obviously my read was bad given what she had.

I think my lesson, other than fold preflop and fold the flop, is that making a fold like this in a big pot is questionable when your read is only based on an hour of play.