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Old 10-24-2006, 11:24 AM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Wookie is right
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Default Re: maniac comes alive on the turn

Yort, here's my point: 6 hands of a read, or 10 hands with 6 hands played, or whatever, isn't enough for you to be pulling a play like this on the turn. The most popular overcard in the deck to your pair is on the board. There's also a straight possible, and a board that might give two pair to a player that will play low, offsuit connectors and trash like that.

Here's a question: what was your plan if he'd 3-bet you on the turn? Now, regardless of your answer, think about how that ISN'T a bad play against a possibly nutbag Villan on this board. Folding's no good, as he could just be affirming your read; calling is no good, given the texture of the board; capping is just out of the question. otoh, if he's donkbetting a worse hand than yours on the turn, do you really want to give him a reason to fold, or are you better off with him betting into you again on the river?

The point I was making, and if you stick around you'll hear it a hundred times (probably a few times from bt), is that you can't put a lot of stock in a small-sample read. A better point, now that I think about it a little more, is that most reads aren't going to change how you should play a hand like this one in micros (obviously a read that this Villan wouldn't donkbet the turn without at least two-pair is the exception, but you would have to be very sure of your read).
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