Re: Home advantage and capping.
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I disagree digdeep. I actually think the opposite is true more often then not.
Variance in play or inconsistent play will bring a team closer to mediocrity. It will make a good team worse and a bad team better. It will bring them closer to .500 and more likely to cover as a dog or not cover as a favorite (unless this is already factored into the line). I think that for teams that are just flat out inconsistent for any reason, home field advantage/disadvantage will actually apply less, and what they bring to the table that day will more then likely be the determining factor.
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Your point makes logical sense. I was hoping to find a relationship where there likely isn't...
I quickly ran a correlation analysis, and your are right that there didn't seem to be a strong correlation with variance and home / away winning %.
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