Re: Home advantage and capping.
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What I do know, however, is that it might bet better to look at it as away team disadvantage. Traveling and staying in hotels in an unfamiliar place takes its toll. It isn't always about how loud the home crowd cheers (or boos)....
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How meaningful is that (not rhetorically)? For many cases, there may indeed be no home field advantage, although it can't really be an overwhelming majority. Home Field Advantage at places like Arrowhead and Lambeau are well documented, and while it may not be particular to a certain franchise (ala x plays well at home because of fans), teams are sometimes built for the type of physical environment (dome/turf combination) the venue offers.
The thing I really mean, however, is that the NFL in the vast majority of scenarios have a binary input - you are either playing at home or you are playing at the road. If we treat it as a road disadvantage instead of a home field advantage - po-tay-toes, po-tah-toes, right? Then add the possibility of there actually being real home field advantages as mentioned above, then what did we gain moving off the 3 point baseline? I certainly don't deny that HFA is complex, has tons of factors and generally the 3 points doesn't do it justice, but you have to work from somewhere, no?
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