[Dire]

Thinking about this hand more I think:

check raising turn > folding turn > calling turn

On the turn you ostensibly have 15 outs getting 2.5:1, which shows an immediate profit of (.326 * 203 + .674 * -80) = $12. Of course that's fudged a bit since your outs obviously aren't all clean. The turn is going to be around =EV. So all our profit is supposed to come on the river if you call the turn.

But I just don't think it's reasonable to expect to be able to extract alot of value on the river. I think he can get away from alot of his hands when we hit (or check behind when we check to him), but we can never get away from ours when we hit - meaning we can already shove a huge chunk off our turn EV since we're losing 220 everytime we hit and he has TT, for example. It all depends on how often he's calling 100BB shoves with one pair hands. I just don't think it's too often when he seems rather tight/conservative and has no reason to believe you're a spewtard.