Re: Did He Touch Home?
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This will possibly derail the thread even more, but in the 3-1 count, bases loaded, bot of 9th inning (or extras), 0 outs, and tie game, is the correct play to almost never swing? 'The Book' says the average pitcher can throw a strike, 'if he really wants to', only 70% of the time. Even if it is an above average pitcher who could do it 80% of the time, wouldn't the right move be to take the pitch?
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You could be right. But I would think there are certain hitters to whom it might be optimal to give the green light. Obviously, they'd still be taking the vast majority of the time, but if they sit on a certain pitch in a certain spot that they can drive to the outfield 90% of the time (and who will chase out of the zone almost never) then that might trump the pitcher's control %. Plus, it's good for metagame.
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