Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
In this case for hand 1, I think the estimate of equity is only marginally high. Having the nut flush draw makes our hand stronger than this method of estimation would indicate, not having it makes the estimate OK.
The reason is as is carnivalhobo suggests about villains range here. He has potentially a wide range to push TT+ and Axs in hearts. The pairs and set hands account for about 27 combos, the flush hands he may have would mostly be larger Axs hands for about 5 or 6 combos. We are therefore drawing live against 80% of his range and for the other 20% we are drawing against a higher flush draw we can still win about 25% of the time when we pair and villain doesn't. As you can see the relatively small number of flush draws that are likely plus the high number of hands villain can be pushing make our draw quite robust.
When we have the nut flush draw on this board we gain quite a bit from having 3 extra outs to beat KK, QQ and JJ hands (accounting for 18 combos and therefore about 70% of his range) aswell as by not having to consider nut flush draws as part of villains push range. The result would probably be an increased equity to about 40%+.
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