[Post-Oak]

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You can bet on Miami to NOT go 0-16 on 5Dimes at -700. I think this prop is massively EV.

Here's Miami's schedule. The lines for the first 3 games are already available. For all of the other lines, I have put my estimated lines in paranthesis. I have shaded the estimated lines against Miami in order to be conservative in my estimates. I actually think they should fare much better against NYJ (they should be favored), Bal (still over rated by the linesmakers) and Cin, but I want to err on the side of caution.

Buf +3
at Phi +9
at Pit +17
NYJ (0)
at Buf (+9)
Bal (+3)
at NE (+24)
Cin (+4)

Now let's put a conservative chance of winning to go along with those spreads.

Buf +3 42% (58% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 19% (81%)
at Pit +17 6% (94%)
NYJ (0) 50% (50%)
at Buf (+9) 19% (81%)
Bal (+3) 42% (58%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+4) 34% (66%)

This would give them only a 6.7% chance of losing every game.

Let's use more conservative numbers:

Buf +3 40% (60% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 17% (83%)
at Pit +17 5% (95%)
NYJ (+3) 40% (60%)
at Buf (+9) 17% (83%)
Bal (+3) 38% (62%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+6) 30% (70%)

Now we come up with 10.0% (90% to win the bet). At -700, we need to win 87.5% of the time. I think this bet will be a winner greater than 90% of the time (more like 94-96% IMO). -700 looks like a great price. The max bet is $1750 to win $250.

I also want to reiterate that I actually think they have a good chance of beating NYJ, Bal or Cin at home. They could be favored by as much as 3 over the Jets, and could easily be pick 'em against Bal or Cin. The estimates I gave are more in line with what I would expect from the linesmakers, and are also meant to be conservative.

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Here's an update on Miami's chances to win a game [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Lines are available for their next two games. The percentage is the chance they have of losing the game according to the spread.

NYJ -1 -114 47%
@ Buf +5.5 69%

I'll estimate for the other 3 games. These are conservative estimates.

Bal +3.5 64%
at NE 98%
Cin +6 72%

These are overly conservative estimates, and yet we still only get a 14.6% chance of Miami losing out. That's an 85.4% chance to win the bet.

5Dimes has the NO 0-16 team at -525 (was just -456 but I hit it). This means you would have to win at least 84% of the time to break even. Even with these very conservative estimates, the bet is +EV.

These are more like the lines I expect:

Bal +2 54%
at NE 97%
Cin +4 66%

That gives an 88.8% chance to win the bet (11.2% they lose out). Even if you disagree with these lines, there is basically no reasonable way to come up with -525 being negative EV. If it goes back to -456, even better.

If you are higher on Miami on any of these games (for example, you are betting on them this week or you realize how terrible Baltimore is), then this is a definite bet IMO.

Hopefully more sites will put up odds on this prop, since they all seem to do a pretty poor job.