Bluffing the Flush
I’ve stumbled across a fairly lucrative “maneuver” while playing at the cash tables. Since I’ve been almost exclusively devout to the cash tables, I’m not sure how successful this play is in tournaments.
I’ve been bluffing the flush hard, and picking up very sizable pots on the river.
I observed that most SOLID cash game players are over aggressive in protecting over cards to a 4 flush board after the flop, that is, after all, sound technical poker; torque the odds with over pot bets so it is un-profitable to call over the long haul.
But what happens if your not drawing to a flush, or better yet, your draw is an OESD. The over bet by your opponent defines his hand and his level of sophistication. This is based on the assumption that if he is drawing, he is not raising the pot to that degree, which is a fair assumption.
So now I have more “implied” outs. If my OESD provides 8 outs, I assume 7 more on my fake flush draw, so calling an over bet, which doesn’t make sense with a simple flush draw (36%), now provides me with a 60% chance to hit my hand (real or perceived, don't care). Now an over pot bet that reduces the payout to less than 2 to 1, is still profitable, plus some.
This is why, my opponent is going to toss in another over pot bet on the turn if the flush doesn’t hit, another smooth call raises the pot and maybe I just hit my straight.
When the flush hits on the river, he now has no choice but to check or make a small blocker bet, and I will of course bet the pot (i don't even have to push all in, he can't call), he/she has no choice but to fold, typically paying me about 1/4 to 40% of his stack.
But it gets even better, when you hit your well concealed hand, be it a straight, 2 pair or a set, he is going to give you the rest of his stack by either pushing all-in to teach you that final lesson that only donkeys chase a draw, or will insta-call your all-in bet convinced that you are bluffing a missed flush draw.
I’ve found that this has worked about 80% of the time, it falls apart quick with a paired board or a flush hit on the turn, since one of his over cards maybe now be drawing on the river plus his high pair. So this play can dent your stack if you miss all together or your opponent pushes all in on the turn, forcing you to fold.
This does not work against morons that are calling you down to the river with king queen off suit.
Give it a try; let me know how it works.
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