[LarryLaughs]

So the problem you want to solve is that how likely is it to make a x$ deviation from your long term average during y hands, given winrate and deviation?

I mean it is obvious that your sample for the deviation and the average should be very large in proportion to the "swing" size to start with.

I am no guru in statistics, but I think you can multiply your std by the swing hand amount to get std of profit for the amount of hands you are talking about.

If you have a large sample with winrate 0$/hand(to simplify) and sd of 1$, the chance of making a 1000$ loss over 1000 hands should be 1 sd from average which means you'd do better about (100-68%)/2 of the time. So the chance would be 16% to lose 1000$ or more during 1000 hands. I divided by two, since the result is 68% likely to be within one sd of average, this is just for the negative half (remember 0$ profit average).

Not sure if sd really scales linearly like that.

Not at all sure if that is correct...