Re: Why don\'t coaches understand fundamental math?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd be curious to see what the average log of the effect of coaching decisions on the result is, rather than just the flat averages.
[/ QUOTE ]
What do you mean? If a mistake drops a team's winning chances from 10% to 5%, that is both cutting their chances in half, and increasing their opponent's chances by less than 6%.
[/ QUOTE ]
[/ QUOTE ]
Right, but there's only one side making each decision. The issue is that if you're looking at probability to win then the log of the decision makes more sense -- a coach on a strong team is usually going to be doing less damage with poor decisions than a weak coach will. Of course, a strong team is less likely to have tough decisions anyway.
|