[emerson]

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Bay101 40/80 main game. Game has been good and not terribly nitty. My image is good and I am up a rack or so when the following hand takes place:

UTG opens. I have no history with this player, but he seems reasonable. After running well in the Must Move he hasn't played as many pots in the main game, and hasn't won many of the pots he has played, and appears to be a little frustrated. He's tried a few FPS moves within the last half hour that haven't worked. He rarely limps, and his range here could be large.

UTG+1 (Lee, female prop) cold calls. I like the way Lee plays and think she is one of the better players and more consistent winners in this game; she is a solid TAG. I don't know if she has a history with UTG, but she is a recent arrival to the main game and did not play with UTG in the Must Move, and thus has only seen his recent play in the main game. I think her cold calling range here is KQs+, AQo+, and maybe a medium pocket pair, though I think she three bets any pair higher than 88 and folds any pair smaller than 66 (and she probably folds 66 and 77 in this spot much of the time).

I am UTG+2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and three bet. All fold to UTG, who calls. UTG+1 also calls.

Flop:

8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, I...?

Call? Raise? Fold? Each has some merit. I'm certain I'm behind UTG+1 at this point, but I have outs, though UTG is still in the pot and will act after me. Comments appreciated.

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I don't like the raise against a smart TAG. They are always paranoid about allowing free card raises and often 3 bet. She could have AQs, AJs, or maybe KQs. Those are almost the only hands that smart players cold call with when no others have yet cold called. Call and fold unimproved on the turn. You don't want to invest lots of money here. If I were she, I'd either 3 bet you on the flop or call your raise and donk the turn. You are not getting a free card if I have any piece of the flop. Free card raises are for use against mediocre players and players who always go for the check raise on the turn. Against better players they are negative ev, just like Stox says in his book.

If you had a couple of other players who you may knock out with the raise then it may work okay. But you only have the UTG guy who may be going for a check raise. This is a toss up between a call and fold. With two opponents in for 3 bets each preflop and two broadway overs, it is usually a fold. Getting 10:1 with about 4.5 to 5 adjusted outs, it is worth investing one more small bet to see the turn.

Also, if she is semi-bluffing and gets two callers on the flop, you'll probably get a free card on the turn without a raise. Most people don't continue the semi-bluff on the turn, out of position, against two opponents.