[AbreuTime]

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You still haven't answered the question - what is your alternative?

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My alternative is to avoid fallacious reasoning and replace it with correct reasoning. The particular type of correct reasoning I would employ would of course depend on the circumstances.
Even if you find yourself with no alternative whatsoever, that doesn't justify fallacious reasoning. You must simply admit you don't know rather than employing it. The peasant was incapable of getting an actuarte value, but that didn't make his averaged one any more useful. It would have been more accurate for him to simply admit that he had no idea how long the nose was, and move on.

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LOL. Splawndarts' alternative: throw up your hands and fold if you don't know.

summary of OP: I'm not good at hand reading and assigning ranges to my opponent. So, I will claim that hand reading is a separate enterprise. Now I can safely fold my hand getting 8:1, since I can put my opponent on a single hand (hand ranges and estimated equity don't really matter).

The 20 posts above this have been really good counters to an OP that didnt really deserve such thoughtful responses.