[DeathDonkey]

Micturition: thanks for some good stuff, I agree with you about pretty much all of that, but he did not know I was completing blind which makes me certain he won't play back with a wide enough range to make my play unprofitable. I think your theoretical range for completing there is also very good.

Andy: old nit or not I think some simple math would change your mind about completing any 3 on 3rd street there given the upcards and that he doesn't know I'm doing it. I'm risking 150 to win 125 so I have to steal the antes 55% of the time. You think the 8 upcard will find a hand to play 45% of the time? And that's just if I check/fold on 4th no matter what! Add in the times I catch well on 4th and I think its a pretty easy steal spot.

Adebisi:

[ QUOTE ]
Definately call. Even if he has a decent hand, if you catch a diamond on 5th, you're freerolling him, and if you catch a low card and he catches a brick, you'll have good equity. Add in the slight possibility that he has something retarded like wired jacks, there's no way you can fold a live 4 flush with a 248.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well sure you've laid out the best cases for me, but you're being way optimistic. If he catches low and I brick I think I have to fold, so that cancels out the times I catch well and he bricks (and he may be able to continue sometimes in that case). The times I catch a diamond and freeroll are small compared to the times he catches another low card and is now freerolling me! He is like a 2:1 favorite to catch a small card instead of me catching a diamond (worded that funny but the point is the pessimistic case is around twice as likely as the optimistic case).

Even though he wasn't a great player I think he is smart enough to know any big wired pair is complete trash.

Thanks all, more thoughts are welcome,
DeathDonkey