Identifying changes in play statistically NLTRN
Before I take on the monumental task of going over a few hundred hand histories to examine my play, I'm trying to approach things from a high level and see if there's any way I can statistically determine if I'm simply playing worse.
There are a couple fairly simple metrics that I've run.
The first one is an analysis of all-in situations. What I'm calculating is basically EV/chip, or how much of each chip in the pot I expect to win based on my hands compared to my opponent's hands at the time of the all-in.
The thought behind this first statistic is that if I were making much worse calls, or pushing in worse spots, my Ev/chip should go down when I compare one set of games (when I was winning) to the other (evil nasty losing streak).
The second is a similar analysis of pots that go to showdown. I'm doing a similar calculation on the money that goes in on each street, using the equity calculations for our actual hands compared at that time. For example, if I start with AhAc, and my opponent starts with JhJc, then I get 81.8% credit for any chips that go in preflop. If we don't get all-in preflop, and the flop is Jd 8s 2s, then I only get 8.6% credit for any chips that go in on the flop.
If I'm just generally putting money in bad in situations where neither one of is is all-in, then I should see this metric (again measured in EV/chip) go down.
I actually expected to see both of these numbers drop at least a little bit, due to tilt and frustration calls throughout my bad streak, but they both actually increased slightly, so if I have made negative changes to my game, it's not in an area that can be measured by one of these two metrics.
Are there any other metrics I can look at to try to get some idea of what I should be looking for when I'm digging through hand histories?
Another obvious possibility is that I might be folding away many more chips than I was previously, but I haven't yet figured out a meaningful way to try to measure that.
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