Re: NL $25 - What should I have done on the river?
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Were ahead basically always here unless he's caught some dumb two pair. No one at this level checks thrice with a monster. A bet of 11 or 12 sounds good.
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It's untrue that no one checks thrice w/ monster @ this level. I do it myself once in a while, if my opponent's aggression factor is high enough. I've had it done to me plenty, many like to slowplay/ succumb to fancy play syndrome.
W/ out numbers or reads, I'd look hard at checking river, b/c villain showed strength on turn w/ your near pot sized bet. They called your raise out o' pos. preflop. What range would you put them on? I'm thinking [AA, 22] [AK, AJ]. A tight player would play something like [AA, 88] [AK]. A loose player would play something like [AA, 22] [AK, AJu] [AK, A2s].
IMO a good player would not call your turn bet w/ less than AQ. A str8 looks unlikely. I usually give players the benefit of the doubt until I see evidence that they are fish. If were at the $10NL level, I'd likely value bet, but I don't see enough players these days overplay top pair, low kicker at $25NL.
Loose VPIP or Went to SD #'s would have me value betting easy, $9-12. I would push if Went to SD was high enuogh.
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