[Tackleberry]

You have to calculate two different probabilities:

1) What are the odds that Villain has

a) overcards
b) a hand that beats us (like 99)
c) a hand we beat

and building upon this

2) What are the odds that Villain

a) c-bets with overcards
b) folds a hand that beats us
c) calls with a hand we beat.

I´ll make a rather short shot at some percentages (please don´t take it as an overly precise assumption - I´m doing this at work [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]):

1a) 20% (I would expect him to raise bigger here)
1b) 70%
1c) 10% (I would expect him to call here)

2a) 50% (remember that he bets oop into two opponents)
2b) 15% (your raise is too weak here, maybe it would change with a push)
2c) 75% (here your weak raise comes to its advantage)

You see, the odds for your flop-raise aren´t very favourable:

=> 25% he has oc and c-betted with.
=> 10% he has a better hand and folds to your raise.
=> 7.5% he is beaten and calls us.