[RainierBob]

Isn’t the key to evaluating a raise what worse hands he might call with versus what better hands he might call/reraise with?

I think my possible raising hands would be Q’s up or better. Therefore, I think he might well fold worse hands than K’s up. So what are his likely holdings.

Playing the hand, I thought of two pair on 4th st to justify his bet. But that wld mean he’d have specifically 86 in the hole. Wld he call the raise on 3rd st with [68]6? He might discount my raise because of the dead queen, but a J has also called before him, and there’s still another player to act. It seems possible but a little doubtful. (If he does have two pair here, means I’ve less to worry from the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].)

What he actually had is, as I think about it, a more natural holding – [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He then bet 4th with his pair of 8’s and 3 flush. Taking this as another likely holding, I have to worry about the flush when the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits but less about A’s. On the river, he could make A’s up with another A, K’s up with a K if he had had the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the hole, or a flush with a heart. (He actually made A’s up.)

Overall, a flush seems the likeliest way for him to make his hand, and then he will reraise. Also, it’s possible he might reraise with K’s up or A’s up. Calling a reraise is difficult because a flush is the most likely holding for a reraise; but if I fold, I may lose unnecessarily when he reraises with K’s up or A’s up.

My conclusion now is that just calling the river is probably best. How’s my logic here?

What do you think of his bet on 6th street unimproved? The 4th street bet helps drive out the other hands, and the fifth street bet might have folded me. But why bet 6th unimproved? [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]