[Pokey]

I see little reason to raise the flop.

First of all, the donk-bettor is on our immediate right. If we raise we blow SB out of the pot for sure and we really announce that we've got an ace of some kind. I agree that we get called by weaker aces but we do NOT get called by weak underpairs that are drawing nearly dead.

Anybody who is behind right now is drawing to at most 2-3 outs; why wouldn't we want them to stick around? Worse yet, anybody with a 4 is going to announce their presence with authority if we raise, and then we're out lots of money (possibly even a stack).

Basically, we have much more EV against hands that bet and call than against hands that call a raise. I'm waiting for a later street to get some money in the middle, especially since I've got position. I think we're rarely ahead if we get it all in on a flop this dry, so I'm willing to take some time.

On the turn we've got a much better chance to make a raise. Now we're closing the action if we call. I'd probably make a smallish raise hoping for two callers again and making it easier to get all-in on the river: at this point I've got $7.25 behind after calling the turn bet and the pot has $7.90 in it. I'd probably raise to $5, leaving me with $3.75 behind and making the pot as large as $18.10, with an EASY crying call on the river for any opponent with an ace or an underpair. If I fold out all the competition at this point I'm not too unhappy -- the pot is large enough to be worth fighting for -- but if someone pushes I'm unhappy as I call it (I think I'm behind, but I'm ahead often enough that calling is still +EV relative to folding).

As played, I raise this river bet. We've got $6.65 behind after the call and the pot has $9.10 in it; I'm making it $4 to go and hoping to get called by weaker hands. I'm not sure I will get called, but I've got to at least make a play for it. I'm keeping the bet small because my line is going to look REALLY suspicious and freak out many potential callers; however, I just can't smooth-call that weak little bet and pretend I'm maximizing value. Worst case my raise loses me $0.60 in an overcall; best case it makes me an extra $6.80. That's a nice cost-benefit analysis. Again, I'm unhappily calling a push but I just can't find a fold here after I've committed most of my stack.