Re: Spare me the \"fold PF\" sermons
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Problem is on the turn if you get called you're behind, if you get called on the flop you're probably ahead.
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Math is awesome. If they don't have a higher diamond, you're a tiny (51%) favorite. This is why you fold preflop: you hit a freaking fantastic flop for your hand, and you're still only slightly ahead or way behind. If there's another draw in the pot you're in massive trouble, but if they both have overpairs you're in good shape. The worst would be one of them having a better draw and the other having a better pair (17% equity in this situation).
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.192% 53.74% 00.45% 532 4.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 45.808% 45.35% 00.45% 449 4.50 { 6d3d }
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